San Carlos is where I grew up and where our family office has been on Laurel Street since 1976, so this is the market I watch most closely. Here's how the third quarter of 2026 played out for single-family homes, based on MLS data through September 23. There's still a week left in the quarter, so treat these as nearly final. I'll update this post once September closes out.
The quick read
- Median sale price: $2.70M, up about 7% from $2.52M in Q3 2025.
- 67 homes sold so far, compared with 70 in all of Q3 last year. That puts it on pace to roughly match.
- Homes sold for about 106% of list price on average, compared with about 103% a year ago.
- Median days on market: 9. Half of all sales went into contract within about a week and a half.
The last five quarters
| Single-family, San Carlos | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 70 | 68 | 47 | 84 | 67 |
| Median sale price | $2.52M | $2.53M | $2.88M | $2.75M | $2.70M |
| Average sale price | $2.60M | $2.72M | $3.13M | $2.86M | $2.84M |
| Sale-to-list price | 103.2% | 104.9% | 104.9% | 105.6% | 106.3% |
| Median days on market | 11 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Median price per sq ft | $1,369 | $1,356 | $1,347 | $1,466 | $1,453 |
*Q3 2026 through September 23. Sale-to-list is total sale price divided by total list price for the period.
What the numbers are saying
Prices stepped up this spring and held. The median jumps around from quarter to quarter depending on which homes happen to sell. Q1 had the highest median ($2.88M), but also the fewest sales, and they skewed toward bigger homes (median 2,230 sq ft). Price per square foot is a steadier measure. It sat around $1,350–$1,370 for three straight quarters, jumped to $1,466 in Q2, and held at $1,453 in Q3. Year over year, the median is up about 7% and price per square foot about 6%.
Competition has built steadily. Sale-to-list rose every quarter, from about 103% a year ago to about 106% now. In practice, a home listed at $2.5M was typically closing around $2.65M. If you're buying, plan for that when you look at list prices. If you're selling, it's a reminder that pricing strategy still drives how many offers you get.
Well-priced homes still moved fast. Median days on market was 9. The average was higher (21 days), pulled up by a few homes that sat for months. That gap is typical: homes priced right go quickly, and overpriced ones linger until they're reduced.
Where homes sold, by price
About 60% of San Carlos sales this quarter landed between $2M and $3.5M. That's the classic three- and four-bedroom home in White Oaks, Howard Park, or Burton Park. Sales under $2M were mostly smaller two- and three-bedroom homes, and the $4M+ group was mostly new or recently rebuilt homes, many in the hills. The top sale of the quarter was $5.1M.
One thing MLS numbers don't show
These stats only include homes sold through the MLS. Some sales, especially at the top of the market, happen off-market between private parties and only show up in county records after they close. So MLS data can understate what's happening at the very high end. If you're weighing a high-end purchase or sale in San Carlos, ask me about recent off-market activity too, not just what's on the MLS.
What I'd tell a buyer or seller right now
Buyers: expect to compete for well-priced homes in the core neighborhoods, and look at recent sale prices rather than list prices to set your budget. Fall can also be a good window, since the buyers still looking in October tend to face a little less competition than in spring.
Sellers: the market is still rewarding homes that are prepared and priced right. If you're thinking about listing this fall or next spring, now's a good time to talk through timing and what your home would likely sell for. For more on timing, see the best time to list in San Mateo County.
You'll find current San Carlos numbers and a neighborhood-by-neighborhood guide on my San Carlos page. If you want this breakdown for your specific street, just ask.
Source: MLSListings, Inc. data for single-family homes in San Carlos (postal city) sold July 1, 2025 to September 23, 2026, by calendar quarter. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
